Betting on the Brexit: What to Expect and Where to Wager

brexit

The impending Brexit vote is making waves around the world, impacting everything from political discussions to global markets. Even online betting sites are getting in on the action with wagers on whether the UK will decide to stay in the EU or pack its bags and go its own way.

The debate is intense but today’s post will not weigh in on the issue one way or another. Today is all about betting on the Brexit. UK bookmakers, as they are wont to do, have taken up the issue of the day and are now offering a number of markets that all revolve around the results of the upcoming vote. We’ll recap the general issue at hand, discuss what the betting sites have on offer and provide the latest betting odds.


Bet on the Brexit Vote Today:

Rank
Betting Site
Bonus
Rating
Visit
1
50% up to $250
2
50% up to $2,500
3
50% up to $200

For those who haven’t been keeping up with the debate, the term “Brexit” is a play on words referring to Britain’s upcoming vote to exit the EU. Although it is complicated issue, there will only be two ways to vote: to stay or to leave.

Those who wish to leave the EU argue that:

  • EU regulations and membership fees stifle business in the UK
  • EU free movement policies allow for nearly unfettered immigration and take away from Britain’s sovereign control over her own borders
  • Membership in the EU is undemocratic; foreign unelected bureaucrats have too much say over British policies
  • EU influence is ever expanding
  • The Brexit would allow Britain to decide what’s best for British people

Those who wish to remain in the EU argue that:

  • Leaving the EU would hurt business as it would weaken Britain’s position in trade negotiations with EU member nations; Britain needs the EU more than the EU needs Britain
  • Leaving would create uncertainty as Britain would need to renegotiate so many issues with the EU; better the Devil you know than the Devil you don’t
  • Leaving would make the EU weaker as a whole in the face of threats from Russian and Chinese expansion
  • British citizens would lose access to freedom of movement and need visas to travel to continental Europe
  • British citizens benefit from cheaper prices thanks to EU membership

Note that these are just a few of the most basic arguments for an against the Brexit. You can read more about each side of the issue here, here and here. If you’re still confused after reading everything, fear not. You’re not alone. This is a complicated issue and most arguments on both sides rely on estimates, projections and personal opinion.

The good news is that you don’t need to know everything to bet on the Brexit vote. Betting on the Brexit is all about predicting how the people will vote. It doesn’t matter if you’re in favour or against; what you need to do is predict whether the people will vote in favour of or against the Brexit.

Betting on the Brexit Vote Online

Current Brexit betting odds place the “remain” outcome in a stronger position but recent polls indicate that public support is leaning towards Britain exiting the EU. Seeing the betting markets react is particularly interesting because oddsmakers are quite adept at predicting the future due to the amounts of money involved. When people weigh in with their money, emotional decision and biases tend to be de-emphasized at the macro level.

As wagers come in on either side, bookmakers adjust the odds in an effort to capture an equal amount of money on both sides of the bet (thus guaranteeing the bookmaker a profit whatever happens). As the odds shift, we can see that more people favour one option over the other. It’s basically the betting equivalent of conducting a poll. There have been many instances in which political betting markets correctly predicted the outcome of elections more accurately than all the world’s polls and pundits.

Both British and international betting sites are keen to capitalize on the upcoming vote, so you won’t have much trouble finding a place to bet on the Brexit online. In fact, the bigger betting sites have a few different markets related to the Brexit. These include the overall outcome, over/under totals on the percentage of votes going either way, regional vote totals and the percentage of people who choose to remain or leave.

Here’s a look at the latest Brexit wagering odds:

 Bet365LadbrokesPaddy Power
Stay or Leave
Remain
Leave
8/13
13/10
8/13
5/4
8/13
11/8
Over/Under
To Remain
Over 54.5%: 7/4
Under 54.5: 2/5
To Leave
Over 48.5%: 10/11
Under 48.5%: 10/11
Remain Vote Percentage
40% or less: 14/1
40.01 - 45%: 6/1
45.01 - 50%: 13/5
50.01 - 55%: 2/1
55.01 - 60%: 7/2
60.01 - 65%: 11/1
65.01 - 70%: 40/1
70.01% or more: 66/1
Under 30%: 25/1
30 - 35%: 25/1
35 - 40%: 16/1
40 - 45%: 6/1
45 - 50%: 11/4
50 - 55%: 2/1
55 - 60%: 4/1
60 - 65%: 12/1
65 - 70%: 25/1
70 - 75%: 50/1
75% or more: 66/1
40% or less: 14/1
40.01 - 45%: 11/2
45.01 - 50%: 5/2
50.01 - 55%: 7/4
55.01 - 60%: 3/1
60.01 - 65%: 10/1
65.01 - 70%: 33/1
70.01% or more: 80/1
Turnout Percentage50.00% or less: 50/1
50.01 - 55%: 16/1
55.01 - 60%: 12/1
60.01 - 65%: 4/1
65.01 - 70%: 2/1
70.01% or more: 11/10
Under 50%: 20/1
50 - 60%: 11/2
60 - 70%: 11/8
70 - 80%: 11/8
Over 80%: 8/1
Under 67.5%: 11/10
67.5% or over: 4/6
Regional Result
EnglandRemain: 8/15
Leave: 11/8
Remain: 8/13
Leave: 6/5
Northern IrelandRemain: 1/33
Leave: 14/1
Remain: 1/33
Leave: 10/1
Remain: 1/14
Leave: 6/1
ScotlandRemain: 1/33
Leave: 14/1
Remain: 1/33
Leave: 10/1
Remain: 1/33
Leave: 9/1
WalesRemain: 1/2
Leave: 6/4
Remain: 4/7
Leave: 5/4
www.bet365.comwww.ladbrokes.comwww.paddypower.com

And here are the odds from the top USA sportsbooks:

 BovadaIntertops
UK to Stay in the EU-175-167
UK to Leave the EU+135+125
www.bovada.lvwww.intertops.eu