2017 Glorious Goodwood Festival Betting: Odds and Analysis

2017 Glorious Goodwood

The Qatar Goodwood Festival, traditionally known as Glorious Goodwood, is a 5-day feast of Flat racing. There are no fewer than 13 Class 1 races including three prestigious Group 1 events, one on each of the first three days. Glorious Goodwood offers something for everyone with sprints, middle distance and staying events across all five days.

Although the festival will host horses from around the world, it retains its quintessential British charm as attendees get to enjoy a splendid backdrop while watching world-class horses in action.

In this preview guide, we look at the biggest race on each of the five days. Each race preview begins with an introduction to the race, followed by a list of previous winners and their prices, useful betting trends and then an odds comparison across the major racing bookmakers.


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Qatar Goodwood Cup Stakes

Tuesday, August 1 at 3:35 PM

The Goodwood Cup is a real test of stamina at 2 miles, and the current edition of the race was first run in 1812. This was after a horse named Bucephalus won the original Goodwood Cup three times from 1808 to 1811.

The race was initially a 3-mile event but was slowly cut in distance over the years. It became a Group 2 in 1971 and again in 1995 after a 10-year stint at Group 3 level. It became a Group 1 race in 2017 and the total purse this year is £500,000. It is the second race in the Stayer’s Triple Crown. The Gold Cup is the first leg, and the Doncaster Cup is the final leg.

Previous Winners

YearWinnerSP
2012Saddlers Rock2/1
2013Brown Panther13/2
2014Cavalryman5/1
2015Big Orange6/1
2016Big Orange11/4

Betting Trends & Information

At the time of writing, there are 18 possible entries although there are usually 10-15 runners. Big Orange is the overwhelming favourite at 4/5 although you can get 10/11 in places. Stradivarius is next at 9/1!

  • 17/20 winners finished in the first three in their previous run.
  • 15/20 winners were in the first three in the betting market; including 9 favourites.
  • 20/20 winners ran between 8 and 60 days before the race; 19/20 winners ran between 16 and 60 days before the race.

Unfortunately, we won’t get to see the eagerly anticipated rematch between Big Orange and Order of St. George as the latter is not competing. As a result, it is difficult to see past Big Orange as he is a horse noted for outstanding consistency and with Dettori on board, it will take a major effort to prevent him steamrolling the opposition.

Other noteworthy entries include Qewy (28/1 with Betfair), Higher Power (16/1 at Coral) and Wicklow Brave (18/1) but the consensus is that these horses are fighting for second place.


Qatar Sussex Stakes

Wednesday, August 2 at 3:35 PM

The Sussex Stakes is the second Group 1 race at the Glorious Goodwood Festival and is run over 1 mile. It was established in 1841 and was initially for 3yo horses, but 4yo’s entered in 1960, and it became an all-age race in 1975. The total purse is over £1 million, and all-time great Frankel won this race twice, in 2011 and 2012.

Previous Winners

YearWinnerSP
2012Frankel1/20
2013Toronado11/4
2014Kingman2/5
2015Solow2/5
2016The Gurkha11/8

Betting Trends & Information

With one of the biggest purses of the year on offer, it is no surprise to learn that the cream of the crop will be in attendance. There are usually 10 or fewer runners in this prestigious race, and it looks set to be a cracker as Ribchester (10/11) does battle with Churchill (7/4). Others near the top of the market include Zelzal at 9/1 and Lancaster Bomber at 16/1.

  • 10/20 winners had an SP of 6/4 or less.
  • 15/20 winners were in the top two in the market including 11 favourites.
  • 20/20 winners last ran 16-60 days before the race.

The Sussex Stakes is historically an event for short-priced horses with three odds-on winners in the last four years. All eyes will be on Ribchester and Churchill. Churchill has much to prove after a poor display at Ascot where he finished fourth. Ribchester on the other hand is in fantastic form and is the one to beat.

Realistically, the rest of the field are merely looking to get in the places.


Qatar Nassau Stakes

Thursday, August 3 at 3:35 PM

The Nassau Stakes is the third and final Group 1 race in the festival, and it attained its lofty status in 1999. The race was established in 1840 and was for 3yo Fillies only until 1975 when Mares and Fillies aged 4+ were allowed enter. It was originally a 1-mile race, but the distance increased to 1m 4f in 1900. However, it was reduced to 1m 1f and 192 yards in 1911 and has remained at that distance ever since.

Previous Winners

YearWinnerSP
2012The Fugue11/4
2013Winsili20/1
2014Sultanina11/2
2015Legatissimo2/1
2016Minding1/5

Betting Trends & Information

The Nassau Stakes is an exclusive race; there were only 5 runners last year for example, although there are 23 possible entries at the time of writing. However, it seems certain that Winter (7/4) will be there and she is the clear favourite. Next up is Nezwaah at 9/2 followed by Queens Trust at 5/1.

  • 15/20 winners have been in the top two in the betting market; including 11 favourites.
  • 18/20 winners last ran 16-60 days before the race.
  • 4/5 winners were 3yo.

Can anyone stop Winter? She has been in phenomenal form with excellent performances at Newmarket, Ascot and the Curragh. The strength of opponent at Goodwood means she will probably face her toughest test to date and the extra couple of furlongs could potentially be her undoing.

If she falters, Nezwaah is the most likely to benefit although Shutter Speed at 5/1 may also have a say while Queens Trust should also be in contention. Wuheida performed reasonably well at the Falmouth Stakes and may have place prospects at 16/1.


Qatar King George Stakes

Friday, August 4 at 3:35 PM

The King George Stakes is a Group 2 event and is the highlight of day four. It is a classic 5f sprint in a race that was first run in 1911 to commemorate the coronation of King George V. The race was a Group 3 event from 1971 until 2010 when it was upgraded to its current status. It is normal for the top performing horses in this race to compete in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York later in August.

Previous Winners

YearWinnerSP
2012Ortensia6/1
2013Moviesta5/1
2014Take Cover6/1
2015Muthmir3/1
2016Take Cover8/1

Betting Trends & Information

There are 19 possible entries at the time of writing, so the King George Stakes is set up to be a wide open affair. At the time of writing, Battaash is the 3/1 favourite with Profitable next up at 5/1 followed by Marsha at 7/1 on Paddy Power.

  • 20/20 winners had an SP of 5/2+; there have been no winners at odds of over 11/1.
  • 12/20 winners were in the top two of the betting market.
  • 17/20 winners last run 16-60 days before the race.

Even though horses near the top of the betting market fare well in this race, it is never easy to pick the winner. Battaash has won both races this season including a Group 3 success last time out, so he is a worthy favourite. However, we should not discount Take Cover (8/1) who is looking to win the race for the third time in four years.

Profitable is a former Group 1 winner, and Priceless (9/1) won the Temple Stakes. Other interesting entries include Marsha, Brando (12/1) and Yalta (25/1). As you can plainly see, Battaash needs to run an excellent race to justify his favourite’s tag.


Qatar Gordon Stakes

Saturday, August 5 at 3:00 PM

The Gordon Stakes is a Group 3 race that was first run in 1902. It takes place over 1m 4f and is one of the UK’s premier middle distance events. In some cases, horses that perform well in this event go on to run in the St. Leger Stakes at Doncaster in September. It is for all horses aged 3+ but please note, former Group 1 winners carry a 7-pound penalty while Group 2 winners get a 5-pound penalty and Group 3 winners get a 3-pound penalty.

Previous Winners

YearWinnerSP
2012Noble Mission11/4
2013Cap Orushes9/2
2014Snow Sky9/2
2015Highland Reel7/4
2016Ulysses9/2

Betting Trends & Information

This Class 1 Group 3 race is an exclusive affair with just five confirmed runners. Crystal Ocean is the 5/4 favourite followed by Khalidi at 9/4 and Mount Mariah at 7/1. Across Dubai (10/1) and Jake’s Hill (12/1) make up the rest of the field.

  • 15/21 winners had SP of between 13/8 and 6/1.
  • 17/21 winners were in the first three in the betting market.
  • 18/21 winners last ran 16-60 days before the race.
  • 18/21 winners had 1-4 season runs.

If we were to take to fact that most winners have an SP of 6/1 or less, the Gordon Stakes would be a two horse race between Crystal Ocean and Khalidi. This appears to be the case on paper as both horse are ranked at least 10 points clear of the rest in terms of OR.

Khalidi is probably the likeliest winner as he finished ahead of Crystal Ocean at Ascot and has raced in Class 1 company more often. None of the others have ever won a race above Class 3 and will likely be out of their depth here.

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