Northumberland Plate Festival Betting Guide

The 3-day Northumberland Plate Festival has become one of the biggest Flat racing events on the calendar in the North of England. This year, the festival begins on Thursday 29 June and ends with the main event, the Northumberland Plate, on Saturday 1 July. Plate day on Day 3 attracts up to 24,000 visitors, and an increasing number of female attendees view the festival as a more relaxed and informal version of Royal Ascot in terms of fashion.

In this short guide, I will focus on the main race on each of the three days: The Seaton Delaval, the Gosforth Park Cup and of course, the Northumberland Plate.

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Best Northumberland Plate Festival Betting Sites

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Thursday 29 June – The Seaton Delaval Handicap

This Class 2 event offers £21,788 to the winner, and at the time of writing, there are 14 runners for this race which is run over a distance of 1 mile and 5 yards. It is a relatively new race having been instituted in 2005, but there is enough data to find some interesting trends.

Last 5 Winners

Year	Winner	Odds (SP)
2012	Swiftly Done	6/1
2013	My Freedom	6/1
2014	Dance and Dance	9/2
2015	A Dead Heat Between Red Avenger & Eutropius	10/1 & 8/1 respectively
2016	Mothers Finest	10/1

Betting Trends & Information

Briardale is the early favorite for the race at 9/2 with Replenish the second favorite at 5/1 although he is joint favorite in several places. Qaffaal is next on the list at 6/1 along with Constantino and the rest of the field is available at 7/1. The favorite is coming off the back of an excellent 6 length win over 1 mile 2 furlongs at Redcar on May 29. As impressive as the performance was, favorites don’t fare well in this fledgling event.

• 1/13 favorites have won the race.
• 10/13 winners have run within the previous 30 days.
• 12/13 winners have had at least 2 season runs.
• 12/13 winners did so at odds of 9/2 or longer.

The Seaton Delaval Handicap is a notoriously difficult race to predict as Tartan Gunna (in 2010) is the only favorite to have ever won the race. There have been some thrilling finishes in recent years. Mothers Finest held off Si Senor by one length last year, and in 2015, Red Avenger and Eutropius ran to a dead heat. With 5 races in 2017 and 2 wins, Briardale looks like a good bet but can he overturn a history of failing favorites, especially with a 10 pound increase on his last race?

Friday 30 June – Gosforth Cup Handicap

This is another Class 2 event, and the winner takes home just over £28,000. It is a sprint event over 5 furlongs and promises to be a fast, furious and unpredictable affair. The race was abandoned due to a storm in 2012, so I have included the winner from 2011 here.

Last 5 Winners

Year	Winner	Odds (SP)
2011	Ancient Cross	11/1
2013	Magical Macey	8/1
2014	Robot Boy	100/30
2015	Northgate Lad	6/4
2016	Orion’s Bow	9/4

Betting Trends & Information

Orion’s Bow is the early betting favorite at 5/1 as she seeks to retain his title. Line of Reason is second favorite at 11/2, Robot Boy is next up at 6/1 and the rest of the field is 7/1+.

• 12/19 winners were first or second favorite.
• 18/19 winners had 2+ season runs.
• 19/19 winners had run within the previous 60 days, 16/19 ran within the previous 30 days.

Although there have been a number of winners at the top of the betting market, the odds for the favorite are usually quite long. For example, there have only been 2 winners since 1997 with odds of 9/4 or less and both wins came in the last two years. Orion’s Bow was the 9/4 favorite when he held off the challenge of Bowson Fred to win by a length in 2016.

While it would be folly to ignore the challenge of Orion’s Bow, last year’s winner has failed to finish in the Top 3 in any of his three races this season. His nearest challenger according to the bookies, Line of Reason, won his last race at 11/1 and left Orion’s Bow in his wake. Can he repeat the trick or will last year’s champion regain form at just the right time?

Saturday, July 1 – Northumberland Plate

The Northumberland Plate is the race everyone will be coming to see on Saturday. It is run over 2 miles and 56 yards and has total prize money of £140,000 with over £86,000 for the winner. The Plate was first run in 1833 although it did not move to its current location at Gosforth Park until 1883. Thanks to the sponsorship of John Smith’s, it is now one of the most lucrative 2-mile handicap races in the world.

Last 5 Winners

Year	Winner	Odds (SP)
2012	Ille De Re	5/2
2013	Tominator	8/1
2014	Angel Gabrial	4/1
2015	Quest For More	15/2
2016	Dannyday	7/2

Betting Trends & Information

The number of entrants in The Northumberland Plate is unknown at the time of writing. Flymetothestars is the 5/1 favorite with SkyBet and several others. You can get 11/2 at Betfair. Seamour is the second favorite with odds of between 9/2 (Stan James) and 6/1 and is actually the 9/2 favorite at Betway. Other possible entries in with a chance include Higher Power at 7/1 and National Scenery at 9/1.

• 12/19 winners were outside of the top 3 in the betting market.
• 14/19 winners won at odds of 13/2+.
• 15/19 winners finished in the Top 3 in their previous race.
• The last 19 winners ran 8-60 days before the race.
• 16/19 winners had 1-3 season runs.

The Northumberland Plate is always a hard race to call although there have been some relatively short odds winners in recent years in what is a contrast to the period from 2001 to 2011 when 9 out of 11 winners were 10/1+.

The current favorite, Flymetothestars, is trained by Sir Mark Prescott and could have Luke Morris on board. He has won 3 out of 4 races including a victory in his last race at Newcastle which was over 2 miles on May 16. Second favorite Seamour finished third at York over 1 mile 5 furlongs in his only race this season.

James Fanshawe trains Higher Power, and he believes his entry will perform well on the all-weather track. He did not run at Ascot because he does not like hard ground. Higher Power has finished second on both outings this season but his runner-up spot at Sandown on May 25, where he finished five lengths behind Big Orange, bodes well since his rival went on to beat Order of St George at the Ascot Gold Cup. If he produces similar form, the 7/1 on offer could be a steal.