Backing and Laying: How to Back and Lay Sports Bets

There are probably hundreds of websites out there offering you ‘fool proof betting strategies’ or ‘strategies that can’t be beaten’ when in most cases there are actually very few which work properly. You see the online bookmakers of whom we bet against are actually canny folk and they are employed to do what they do because they are the best. There’s no way around it really, beating the bookmaker via betting strategies is tough.

Now let’s get one thing cleared up straight away, this backing and laying strategy of which we will talk about throughout this article isn’t going to guarantee you a win every time. It isn’t going to get you rich quick. But what it will do is let you take a position and then trade out of it, which changes the shape of your risk rather than removing it — whether it leaves you better off depends entirely on the prices you get on both sides.

The strategy works in conjunction with any betting exchange site that allows you to essentially become your own bookmaker by using the lay market. A lay market basically allows you to back against a certain result and set your own line, exactly as a bookmaker would do. Any exchange with a liquid draw market on the games you follow will do; liquidity in the specific market is what decides it, not the brand.

What Is Backing and Laying in Sports Betting?

The backing and laying betting strategy works on a relatively simple base with a few technical requirements of which we will discuss later. The strategy works best with football (soccer) – although it can be adapted to other sports – and the aim is to close your position out before the game finishes, rather than carrying it to the final whistle.

The market in which we are interested in is the draw market. The concept comes about by considering the following statement:

“The majority of football matches will at some point see a goal scored throughout the match”

Basically saying that most games fail to finish 0-0. That is the basis of the best-known worked example, which is worth following to see how backing and laying interact — not as a system to run. To start, you lay the draw before kick-off. As a goal is scored the likelihood of the game finishing in a draw will decrease meaning the odds of backing the draw will increase. As the odds increase you can back the draw to close out the position you opened, so that both the draw and a non-draw settle against bets you already hold. Whether closing out leaves you ahead depends on the gap between the two prices. Still confused? Let’s run through a working example.

Backing and Laying Betting Examples

So we start by searching the football leagues to find our game. Take a match where the draw is priced at 3.8, which is a workable number for laying the draw. It’s worth noting at this point which team is favored to win. Although we don’t need this market for our strategy it will have an effect on how much the odds fluctuate. If the favorite were to score first then the odds of the draw would shoot up, but if the underdogs were to score then the odds would still increase but lesser so than the favorite.

With 20 minutes gone the pre-match favourite scores to make it 1-0. The odds on all markets will now begin to fluctuate but again we are solely interested in the draw market. With the favourite ahead, the likelihood of the draw falls and its price rises. You can now back the draw to close the position out. That trade raises what the position returns if the game ends level and lowers what it returns on every other result, because the second stake comes off those branches — so it converts a large exposure on the draw into a smaller, more even position rather than leaving you better off on all three. What it is worth depends on the two prices you got, and the second one only exists if someone is offering it.

That is the mechanism. It depends on a goal being scored, and the section below covers what happens when one is not. Before we move on, a practical point about the tooling. Working out how much to stake on the second bet, to leave the position where you want it across both outcomes, is fiddly to do in your head under time pressure. Exchanges generally show you what a given stake does to each outcome as you type it, and some offer a one-click version; whichever one you use, find that feature before you need it rather than during a match.

Back and Lay Betting Tips

You’re probably thinking right now that this all looks a little too easy and also coming up with scenarios such as ‘what if there isn’t a goal’, and you would be right to do so. Hopefully, we can cover these bases for you now.

• Greening up: Greening up is basically your decision. How much you stake on the second bet decides how the position sits across the results: more of it evens them out, less of it leaves more riding on the team that is ahead. Which is preferable depends on the prices and on a judgement about the match that may be wrong.

• Be league selective: Each league around the world will have different average goals per game. The Italian league is synonymous with being low scoring whereas the English and Spanish leagues average some of the highest goals per game ratios anywhere in the world. Remember that the whole position depends on a goal being scored, which is why the league you pick matters.

• Get in and out: Football can be a furiously fast-paced game which means you have to have your wits about you when the time comes. The draw price moves as soon as a goal goes in and keeps moving while the market settles, so the price available a few seconds later is not the price on the screen at the moment of the goal. Don’t fall into the trap of letting it run for a few more minutes to gain a couple of extra units as in that time it could be long enough for the opposition team to equalize meaning your back to square one.

• Trial run: It’s not the easiest system to master straight out of the blocks. It can take a fair few games before you get a real feel and understanding of how the odds and the markets fluctuate after every goal. Do a few test runs prior to betting with real money to make sure you are fully up to speed.