2017 US Open Early Look: Outright Odds and Useful Stats

Post by: Mike Philipps

In four weeks, professional golf gets its first look at Erin Hills (par 72, 7,812 yards), as Wisconsin hosts the 2017 U.S. Open. Here’s an early look at the field and some statistical trends from the last 15 years.

  • The winner’s average age is under 30-years-old. The average age of the last six winners is 29, and it’s trending down. Since 2011, the average is under 27. Dustin Johnson won last year at the age of 31.
  • 12 of the last 15 U.S. Open champions have been first-time winners. On average, they won in their sixth attempt. Webb Simpson won in his second attempt back in 2012.
  • Four of the last six winners entered the week ranked in the top seven. Before that, dark horses rules for a brief stretch, with four winners between 2005 and 2010 ranking lower than 35th in the world. Michael Campbell (2005) and Lucas Glover (2009) weren’t in the top 70.
  • Playing well right before the Masters doesn’t guarantee success at Augusta. The last player to win his last event prior to the Masters AND the Green Jacket was Phil Mickelson in 2006. Only twice in that span has a player even finished in the top 5 in the event prior to his Augusta victory.
  • Being in the lead is obviously helpful when trying to win anything, but especially the U.S. Open. Seven of the last 15 winners have held at least a share of the lead going into the final round. Don’t expect a lot of late charges, either. Each of the last 15 champions were within the top eight after 54 holes.
  • Par is king at the U.S. Open, so don’t expect a lot of low numbers. Only three of the last 15 winners have posted a total score better than five-under-par. Six times the winning score was even par or higher.

Where to Bet on the 2017 US Open Online

Betting Site

Early 2017 US Open Betting Odds

We will be publishing a follow-up post with updated odds at a later time, but for now we have the early outright odds as published by the world’s best golf bookmakers. We have chosen the top 20 golfers according to the odds and compare them across each of the major betting sites. You can see a more complete list by visiting the bookmaker linked-to at the bottom of each column.

Best Odds from International Betting Sites

 ComeOn.comBet365William Hill
Dustin Johnson13/27/17/1
Rory McIlroy17/28/18/1
Jordan Spieth9/110/110/1
Jason Day11/112/114/1
Hideki Matsuyama16/118/120/1
Jon Rahm18/120/125/1
Justin Rose20/116/120/1
Sergio Garcia22/120/125/1
Henrik Stenson25/125/125/1
Adam Scott30/128/133/1
Justin Thomas30/140/133/1
Rickie Fowler33/128/125/1
Phil Mickelson33/133/140/1
Brooks Koepka40/140/140/1
Thomas Pieters40/150/150/1
Branden Grace50/150/150/1
Patrick Reed50/155/166/1
Bubba Watson50/166/180/1
Paul Casey50/150/166/1
Tyrrell Hatton50/166/1100/1

Best Odds from USA-Friendly Sportsbooks

Dustin Johnson+650+650
Rory McIlroy+800+800
Jordan Spieth+1000+1000
Jason Day+1200+1000
Hideki Matsuyama+1600+1800
Jon Rahm+2000+2000
Justin Rose+1800+1600
Sergio Garcia+2000+2000
Henrik Stenson+2500+2500
Adam Scott+2800+2500
Justin Thomas+2800+3300
Rickie Fowler+2500+2200
Phil Mickelson+2800+3300
Brooks Koepka+4000+4000
Thomas Pieters+4000+4000
Branden Grace+4500N/A
Patrick Reed+5000N/A
Bubba Watson+6600+5000
Paul Casey+5000+4000
Tyrrell Hatton+6600N/A

Statistics and Additional Odds for Noteworthy Players

We’ve broken up the 156-player field into the following categories: The Favorites, Past U.S. Open Champs, Other Major Winners, Veterans Who’ve Been Close and Young Guns. Keep in mind that players listed before are not guaranteed to play. A player without odds listed are not yet in the field. Be sure to check back for a more detailed preview on some of these players the week leading up to the U.S Open.

Note: Official World Golf Rankings and odds are as of May 15.

The Favorites

These are the consensus front-runners among oddsmakers and the betting public at large.

Player (Rank)Odds to Win
US Opens Played / Cuts MadeBest
Last Year
Dustin Johnson (1)13/29/81st, 20161st
Rory McIlroy (2)17/28/51st, 2011MC
Jordan Spieth (6)9/15/41st, 2015T-39

Past U.S. Open Champs

These players have done it before and know what it takes. These are proven winners at the US Open and are relatively “safe” bets outside the dominant favourites detailed above.

Player (Rank)Odds to Win
US Opens Played / Cuts MadeYear(s) of
Last Year
Justin Rose20/114/92013MC
Martin Kaymer66/19/72014T-37
Jim Furyk75/122/192003T-2
Graeme McDowell125/112/102012T-18
Webb Simpson150/16/52012MC
Lucas GloverN/A12/42009MC
Ernie Els300/124/191994
Angel CabreraN/A17/132007T-37
Tiger Woods60/119/162000
MC (2015)

Other Major Winners

These players have won some of the biggest tournaments in the world, but never the U.S. Open. They can perform under pressure and could very well go deep at the 2017 US Open.

Player (Rank)Odds to Win
US Opens Played / Cuts MadeBest US Open
Last Year
Jason Day (4)11/16/62nd, 2011
T-2, 2013
T-82015 PGA Championship
Sergio Garcia (5)22/117/15T-3, 2005T-52017 Masters
Henrik Stenson (7)25/111/8T-4, 2014Withdrew2016 British Open
Adam Scott (9)30/115/9T-4, 2015T-182013 Masters
Phil Mickelson (20)33/126/232nd, 1999, 2002, 2004
T-2, 2009, 2013
MC2004 Masters
2005 PGA Championship
2006 Masters
2010 Masters
2013 British Open
Louis Oosthuizen (18)60/17/4T-2, 2015T-232010 British Open
Bubba Watson (31)50/111/6T-5, 2007T-512012 Masters
2014 Masters
Charl Schwartzel (17)75/110/87th, 2015T-232011 Masters
Jimmy Walker (26)75/15/3T-9, 2014MC2016 PGA Championship
Zach Johnson (59)75/113/8T-8, 2016T-82007 Masters
2015 British Open
Danny Willett (22)75/13/2T-37, 2016T-372016 Masters
Jason Dufner (63)125/110/7T-4, 2012, 2013T-82013 PGA Championship

Veterans Who’ve Been Close

These are the best players in the world who haven’t won a major. Some of these players tend to fly under the radar and can therefore show some additional value.

Player (Rank)Odds to Win
US Opens Played / Cuts MadeBest US Open
Last Year
Best Major
Hideki Matsuyama (3)16/14/3T-10, 2013MCT-4, 2016 PGA Championship
Rickie Fowler (10)33/19/5T-2, 2014MCT-2, 2014 US Open
T-2, 2014 British Open
Brooks Koepka (19)40/14/3T-4, 2014T-13T-4, 2014 US Open
T-4, 2016 PGA Championship
Branden Grace (24)50/14/3T-4, 2015T-53rd, 2015 PGA Championship
Patrick Reed (15)50/13/2T-14, 2015MCT-12, 2016 British Open
Paul Casey (14)50/113/7T-10, 2007MCT-3, 2010 British Open
Matt Kuchar (20)66/114/9T-6, 2010T-46T-3, 2012 Masters
Brandt Snedeker (32)75/111/88th, 2015
T-8, 2010
MCT-3, 2012 British Open
Adam Hadwin (48)N/A2/1T-39, 2011MC (2013)T-36, 2017 Masters
Kevin Chappell (23)100/15/4T-3, 2011MCT-3, 2011 US Open
Shane Lowry (72)75/14/2T-2, 2016T-2T-2, 2016 US Open
Lee Westwood (55)100/118/153rd, 2008
T-3, 2011
T-322nd, 2010 Masters
2nd, 2010 British Open
T-2, 2016 Masters
Alex Noren (13)100/13/1T-51, 2011MCT-9, 2012 British Open
Marc Leishman (36)100/15/2T-18, 2016T-18T-2, 2015 British Open
Pat Perez (41)N/A4/2T-36, 2008T-36 (2008)T-6, 2005 PGA Championship
JB Holmes (44)125/17/4T-14, 2014MC3rd, 2016 British Open
Gary Woodland (42)N/A6/3T-23, 2011MCT-12, 2016 British Open
Russell Knox (34)100/12/2T-23, 2016T-23T-22, 2016 PGA Championship
Kevin Kisner (43)125/13/2T-12, 2015T-49T-12, 2015 US Open
Ryan Moore (35)150/110/5T-10, 2009T-32T-9, 2016 Masters
Francesco Molinari (33)125/17/4T-23, 2014T-27 (2015)T-9, 2013 British Open
Charley Hoffman (54)150/15/4T-37, 2016T-37T-9, 2015 Masters
Bill Haas (45)150/18/4T-23, 2011T-51T-9, 2016 British Open
Scott Piercy (60)N/A5/2T-2, 2016T-2T-2, 2016 US Open

Young Guns

These players are all age 27 or younger, but they have major game. There are some good value opportunities here as these players are on their way up but do not have quite the same name recognition as the more established names in the field. Just take Si Woo Kim and the punter who won €60,000 backing him ahead of the PLAYERS Championship for example.

Player (Rank)Odds to Win
US Opens Played / Cuts MadeBest US Open
Last Year
Jon Rahm (12)18/11/1T-23, 2016T-23
Justin Thomas (11)30/12/1T-32, 2016T-32
Thomas Pieters (27)40/10N/AN/A
Daniel Berger (39)75/13/3T-28, 2014T-37
Tyrrell Hatton (16)50/10N/AN/A
Patrick Cantlay (121)N/A2/2T-21, 2011T-21 (2011)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (40)100/12/2T-48, 2014T-54
Si Woo Kim (28)N/A0N/AN/A
Wesley Bryan (38)N/A0N/AN/A
Emiliano Grillo (37)125/11/1T-54, 2016T-54
Bryson DeChambeau (127)125/12/1T-15, 2016T-15
Tony Finau (69)150/12/1T-14, 2015MC