Betting on the Trump Presidency: Latest Odds and Strategy
The 2016 US Presidential election is already firmly in our rear-view mirror, but the Trump betting train has showed no signs of slowing ever since. Even 100+ days into the new Presidency, betting markets related to the Trump presidency remain active and updated.
In fact, we even noted not all that long ago that Irish betting firm Paddy Power has since hired a full time “Head of Trump Betting” director just to manage all bets related to the new President. The political climate remains just as divided as ever with both sides firmly dug in to their positions.
You can argue with your friends (or random strangers on the internet) until you’re blue in the face, but the odds of changing anyone’s mind at this point don’t look any better than they did the day of the election. This all culminates to create the perfect climate for betting on Trump online.
We already spoke at length on the Trump betting phenomenon so we’ll leave the introduction at that. Today, we’ll be focusing on the actual Trump betting markets and the latest odds for various wagers related to the new administration. We will also take a poke at analyzing the situation and discussing which bets make the most sense.
Today’s post will be taking sides, but only from a strategic perspective. We will be leaving our political opinions at the door focusing solely on the one thing we can all get behind: making intelligent bets and trying to win real money.
Table of Contents
- Best Trump Betting Sites
- Easiest Way to Make Money Betting on Trump Impeachment
- Looking at One Riskier Bet Related to Healthcare
Bookmakers with the Most Trump Markets
Let’s begin with the best international bookmakers for betting on the Trump presidency. We’ll keep this section short and to the point. Our process for selecting the best Trump bookmakers was simple: we opened the political section of all the trusted betting sites that we have reviewed here at OBS and then ranked them according to which have the most Trump-related markets.
The end results were as follows:
- Paddy Power
- Sky Bet
Paddy Power is by far the one betting site with the most options for betting on Donald Trump online. With their newest “Head of Trump Betting” devoting his entire work week to Trump betting, you can expect to see these markets and more available for quite a while to come.
Trump Betting Odds and Markets at Paddy Power
Paddy Power has a massive amount of Trump markets on offer now, but we need to pick the bets that make the most sense in pursuit of our goal to find value and make money. A good portion of the Trump odds being offered at Paddy Power are just comedic in nature.
It may be funny to bet on whether or not Trump will ban Irish people or if he will surgically enhance his hands at some point (those are both real wagers at Paddy Power), but we’ll be focusing on the serious wagers today. You can always visit PaddyPower.com if you’re curious to see the full list of crazy Trump props the oddsmakers have come up with to date.
Will Trump resign as President during his first term?
- No: 4/11
- Yes: 15/8
What year will Trump cease to be President?
- 2020 or later: 10/11
- 2017: 2/1
- 2018: 10/3
- 2019: 9/1
Will Trump complete his first term in office?
- Yes: 5/6
- No: 5/6
Will Trump repeal Obamacare during his first term?
- Yes: 2/9
- No: 13/5
Will the House vote to Impeach Donald Trump during his first term?
- Yes: 11/10
What will Trump be impeached for?
- Tax Evasion: 4/1
- Treason: 6/1
- Bribery: 10/1
- Perjury: 12/1
Sky Bet Trump Markets
Sky Bet has a section of request-a-bet options that may change in the future as these odds are requested by players from time to time and then Sky decides which wagers to take. Additionally, Sky has another market for predicting the final year of Trump’s presidency.
Various Request a Bet Markets
- Trump to complete a full term as President: 11/10
- Trump to not complete a full term as President: 4/6
- Trump not to be President on July 1st, 2017: 7/1
- Trump not to be President on July 1st, 2018: 5/2
- Trump to visit the UK before the end of 2017: 2/7
- Trump not to visit the UK before end of 2017: 5/2
- Trump to win 2017 Nobel Peace Prize: 20/1
When will Trump cease to be US President
- 2017: 2/1
- 2018: 9/2
- 2019: 7/1
- 2020: 16/1
- 2021: 15/8
- 2022: 40/1
- 2023: 50/1
- 2024: 66/1
- 2025: 6/1
Easy Money Trump Bet: Will he complete his first term?
The easiest way to make money betting on Donald Trump involves the various markets that allow you to bet on Trump being impeached, resigning or just failing to complete his first term for any reason. There are also some markets related to the year in which Donald Trump will leave office.
These bets are easy money in my opinion because there is almost no reason to believe Trump will actually quit the office or be forced out for any reason. Yes, there has been a lot of noise from certain Democratic leaders and people on the ground, but this is still a nation of laws and there has to be a very good reason to force a sitting president out of office.
Impeachment is unlikely for two reasons. First of all, Donald Trump has not committed any impeachable offenses. I know, I know, Trump has said and done many controversial things during the campaign and since taking office, but none of these things are cause for impeachment.
The whole Russian collusion issue is a big nothingburger. Those claims have been floating around since the campaign and nobody has provided anything resembling evidence of those claims. If the evidence was there, someone would have found it by now. The “Trump Dossier” was supposed to be the final nail in the coffin and that story has completely fallen apart.
Secondly, a successful impeachment would require a majority vote in the House and a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate. Both chambers of Congress are full of republicans until at least 2018 and even after the mid-term elections will likely lean republican. Getting a vote past either chamber will be a long shot unless Trump commits some sort of serious crime during his first term.
It is true there are many in the GOP who oppose Trump and actively work against him, but even with that, the odds of getting an actual impeachment are low. Furthermore, Trump has been working with members of Congress since taking office and seems to be building a better relationship with those in the GOP who opposed Trump prior to the election.
No matter your political leanings, the truth of the matter is Donald Trump being forced out of office is nothing more than wish-casting at this point. Even so, there are enough people on the ground who either believe or wish Trump will be forced out that they have pushed the odds into very juicy territory for betting AGAINST an impeachment.
One of the other reasons I don’t like betting FOR a Trump impeachment or early exit is that the odds are not very good on those outcomes. For example, Sky Bet is paying less than even money (4/6) for Trump to not complete a full term. I find an early Trump exit to be way too unlikely to only receive 4/6 on my money.
Look, if the idea of Trump completing a full term is simply unpalatable to you, look at it this way: bet on him staying in office as a “happiness hedge.” If Trump does leave office, you lose your bet but at least you can go to sleep at night knowing he no longer the president. If Trump never leaves office, you can take the consolation prize of winning a sizable bet.
Trump Impeachment Odds
There are several variations of this bet that you can take depending on your risk tolerance. Paddy Power is the best overall site for impeachment betting as they allow you to pick whether or not he will be impeached, the cause of impeachment and the year of impeachment.
Now, back to risk tolerance. There are numerous betting options that you can choose from depending on how specific you want to get with predicting for or against an early Trump exit. If you want to bet on impeachment specifically, it increases your risk as there are other ways the Trump presidency could come to an early end. There are also markets that simply stipulate when Trump will leave office.
Odds on Trump Completing His First Term
Paddy Power is paying 11/10 on a wager that Trump will cease to be the President in 2020 or later. In other words, this is a bet that Trump will complete his first term. I believe getting 11/10 on that outcome is excellent and provides a ton of value for punters. History shows that it is extremely rare that a President not complete one full term.
If you’re worried about Trump falling ill or leaving the Presidency due to some sort of “unnatural cause,” you can simply bet AGAINST Trump resigning at odds of 4/11 at Paddy Power. These odds are not nearly as attractive, but the only way you lose this wager is if Trump takes the very specific action of resigning from office. That does not seem very likely.
Best Odds on Trump Completing His 1st term
- 11/10 at Paddy Power
Risky Trump Bet: Obamacare Repeal
Will Obamacare be repealed in its entirety?
This one is a bit riskier and I’m having a difficult time coming to a firm conclusion. I do think the Obamacare repeal will happen at some point, but the odds are throwing me off because a repeal is only paying 2/9.
Compounding that, the GOP has shown just enough uncertainty in what they actually want to do that this whole healthcare deal could possibly remain stalled. Either that or the GOP could choose a path of altering Obamacare rather than replacing it in its entirety as the bet requires.
On the other side, the odds are 13/5 that Trump and the GOP will not repeal Obamacare in its entirety during his first term. Those odds are a little juicier and have me leaning towards that side of the bet just because of the odds.
Why Obamacare Will NOT Be Repealed
The key to this bet is that Paddy Power says it must be repealed “in its entirety” and the GOP has already shown an inability to come together on one of the core issues that got them into office in the first place.
One issue is a not-insignificant number of Republican lawmakers have shown a severe reluctance to even attempt an actual repeal. Paul Ryan’s first Obamacare replacement proposal was a debacle that was widely derided by voters who alternatively called it Obamacare Lite and RINOCare (with RINO being a euphemism for “Republican in name only”).
Secondly, the word “repeal” has a legal definition.
The first plan introduced by Paul Ryan did not technically repeal Obamacare. The title kinda-sorta mentions the words “repeal and replace,” but the actual text of the proposal began right off the bat with the words “Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act…. is amended…”
That’s not a repeal.
Trump and a simple majority of Republicans can fairly easily dismantle key components of Obamacare and rework a solution from there, but repealing the law in its entirety (as required for this bet) requires 216 votes in the house and 60 in the Senate.
If you’ve been following the news of this healthcare battle recently, remember this: all the confusion, difficulty and infighting has been related entirely to the House. If this bill makes it through the House, it faces a whole new set of challenges in the Senate.
Furthermore, Republicans can do a lot of damage to Obamacare via the Reconciliation process, but they’re having a harder time getting votes for an actual repeal. Thus, the path of least resistance for everyone would be to just kill Obamacare in everything but name and pass new legislation to further manipulate what’s left (still not a repeal).
One more thing to keep in mind is Trump did publicly support the Ryan healthcare plan and even threatened to primary Republicans who voted against it. This to me shows Trump is very much open to the idea of merely amending Obamacare. Even though the Ryancare plan failed to even get a vote, Trump’s support of the plan shows where his mind is.
Those are the reasons for betting against the repeal ever happening. If you take this bet and the Republicans fail to repeal Obamacare in its entirety, you stand to win 13/5 on your money.
Best odds against the Obamacare repeal
- Trump NOT to repeal Obamacare during his first term: 13/5 at Paddy Power
Now, here are the reasons to back the other side of the bet.
Why Obamacare WILL Be Repealed
Trump wants a win on healthcare, he is the President and the GOP controls both houses. Voters gave the Republicans claimed they needed to repeal healthcare. They have Congress. They have the Senate. They have the White House.
Sure, there are some difficulties getting enough votes to overcome Democratic opposition, but the Republicans will be playing a game rigged in their favor should they choose to actually buckle down, get to work and pass a legitimate repeal law. The only thing stopping them is themselves.
Trump, meanwhile, has skills as a negotiator and is slowly bringing House Freedom Caucus members on board. For our friends across the pond, the Freedom Caucus consists of conservative and libertarian-leaning Republicans who were strongly opposed to the Ryancare plan. They will not accept Obamacare Lite; they want full repeal. Getting them on board brings an appeal closer to fruition.
As Trump has brought some of the House Freedom Caucus on board, he lost some of the more moderate republicans from purple states. However, Trump appears to be making progress with both sides bit by bit.
I also do not think his first failure to pass an Obamacare replacement has dissuaded him a bit. Remember, this guy is a billionaire who has been through the ringer in both both business and politics and come back to win every time. Love him or hate him, the guy is a fighter. I have a very hard time imagining him just outright giving up on this thing.
If you bet on the repeal happening during Trump’s term (2/9 at Paddy Power), I believe the biggest risk is not that nothing gets done. It’s that your bet is lost on a technicality if the GOP passes something that only amends Obamacare rather than repeals it entirely.
One last thing: look at the latest budget appropriations bill that was announced just yesterday. The bill crafted by both Republican and Democratic lawmakers contained almost nothing supporting Trump’s core agenda. The bill offers nothing for replacing Obamacare, defunding Planned Parenthood or even cutting programs he deems as wasteful spending.
Trump has not yet signed off on the budget, but it looks likely he will. Watch what he does with this spending bill. If Trump gives it the “OK” and does not veto the spending bill, I think it becomes less likely that he ever gets around to repealing Obamacare. I say this because approving this budget shows Trump is willing to accept much, much less than what he usually demands up front.
Best odds FOR the Obamacare repeal
- Trump WILL repeal Obamacare during his first term: 2/9 at Paddy Power
Wes Burns has more than a decade’s worth of experience as a writer, researcher, and analyst in the legal online betting industry and is co-founder of OnlineBettingSites.com. Wes approaches his work from the viewpoint of players.