What Is Middling in Sports Betting?

Middling is a market mechanic worth understanding: it is what becomes possible when a betting line moves far enough that you can hold two bets on opposite sides and have a window where both win. This page explains how that window appears and why it is narrow. It is not a way to earn money reliably — it depends on a line moving the right way and on the final score landing inside a gap you do not control.

Middling is similar to the statistical arbitrage trading strategy used in the financial markets. It involves taking the opportunity to bet both sides of a market when it arises and having a chance of winning both bets.

It requires a betting line to move, which is the condition everything else here depends on. The downside is small per attempt and it is still a downside — you pay it on every attempt that misses, and most of them miss. A successful middle gives you a chance to win a big payout when the final score lands just right, but it doesn’t cost too much when you miss because you have money on both sides.

If that doesn’t make sense, don’t worry. The following hypothetical examples will show how it all works in plain terms. Middling sounds more complicated than it really is. Just give these examples a read and you’ll have the basic idea down in no time.

What Are the Best Sports for Middling?

Successful middling plays best with high-scoring sports.

NFL betting is a popular choice with special preference given to margin of victory spread wagers.

NBA betting is even better because there are plenty of games with well over 200 points scored. It is entirely possible to benefit from a substantial middle bet in basketball on totals wagers if the odds move just right.

Savvy bettors will be able to find opportunities in other sports as well, as you’ll see below.

Middling & NFL: Margins of Victory

NFL games are won by 3 points more often than by any other margin, with 7 and 10 also clustering — which is why lines sit on and around those numbers and why a middle that spans one of them is the most sought-after kind. The exact frequencies move as the game changes (two-point conversions are attempted more than they used to be), so this page does not quote a percentage; if you want current numbers, the margin-of-victory tables published each season are the place to look.

Take a worked example from an opening-round NFL game, with the spread on the underdog at +6.0 at -110 and the favourite at -6.0 at -110. This means a -6.0 bet on the favourite is a ‘Push’ if they win by exactly 6, wins if they win by 7 or more, and loses if they win by 5 or fewer.

Now imagine the favourite becoming even stronger. If you believe that is likely, you could back them now at -6.0. By game time they might be -9.0, with the underdog available at +9.0. That is a middle.

If the favourite wins by 7 or 8 points, you win both bets, and get a ‘Push’ on one bet if the margin is exactly 6 or 9. A middle spanning 7 is the kind people look for, because 7 is one of the common margins — which is also why the line was sitting near it in the first place.

Middling in Practice Using Volleyball

I’ve chosen volleyball at random because it is a surprisingly good option if you have a clue about the sport. I saw a World Championships U20 women’s game where the Over line was 186.5 points at odds of -120, and the Under line was 186.5 points at odds of -120. You would only need a relatively small change in the market to benefit from a possible ‘middle’ bet.

This could happen in the hours before a game if and when team news came available for example. Once you know what to look for in any given sport, it is a question of ‘shopping around’ for bets. It is unlikely that one bookmaker will change the odds much; and even if it does, you could easily find yourself restricted for betting on both sides of the market.

Let’s say the Over line in the game above remained at 186.5 points, but you found a bookie offering odds of -120 on an Under line at 189.5 points, you have discovered a ‘middle’ bet. Here is what could happen once you place both bets:

• Both bets win if there are 187 or 188 points in the game.

• You win the Under bet but lose the Over bet if there is 186 points or less.

• You win the Over bet but lose the Under bet if there is 190 points or more.

What About Middling in Baseball?

In theory, you could try to middle while betting on baseball, but it is extremely unlikely that the right market would open up. For instance, take the ‘Total Run Line’ of a game between the Atlanta Braves and the San Diego Padres. The ‘Over’ line was 9.0 runs at odds of -120 (1.83 if you prefer decimal), and the ‘Under’ line was 9.0 runs at odds of +100 (2.00).

Clearly, you can’t find a middle in that market as it stands. You would need to find a bookmaker that offers odds of, say, -120 on the ‘Under’ run line at 11.0 runs to get a ‘middle.’ In this scenario, you could win both bets if there were exactly 10 runs in the game.

If there were 9 runs, you win the under line and get a ‘Push’ on the Over line. 11 runs mean the ‘Over’ line bet is a winner and the ‘Under’ line bet is a Push. Of course, the chances of the above scenario are extremely slim.

If you’re willing to look beyond American sports; Rugby Union, Volleyball, Handball, and Tennis are all sports that give you a chance of getting a ‘middle’ bet.

Is Middling Worth It?

That is the million-dollar question! The honest answer is that it depends on several factors. The most pertinent is the likelihood of winning against the potential return on your investment. This depends on the odds you take for the opposing bets.

Using the -110 price example from our NFL scenario, you risk $10 each time with a possible $200 profit. If you hit the middle just once, you can afford 20 consecutive losses and still break even.

Therefore, you must determine if the middle is likely to happen at least 5% of the time so you can earn a sliver of profit; it would need to occur 4.76% of the time for you to break even (once every 21 bets).

The better the odds you can get for your middling opportunities, the fewer bets you need to win to breakeven (obviously). Let’s say you get both bets at odds of -105. This is 1.952 in decimal form. If you bet $100 on each bet and the middle comes in, you earn a total profit of $190.40.

On a miss, one of the two bets comes in and the other does not, so the loss is the difference between the two prices rather than a whole stake — $4.80 on these numbers. That is what makes the arithmetic look attractive: a small loss most of the time against a large gain when the middle lands. It assumes both bets get matched at the prices quoted and that neither is voided, which is the part that is not in your control.

In summation, middling is not a tactic used by the casual bettor. It requires detailed knowledge of how the betting markets work because you only get the middling opportunity when the ‘line’ moves. If you place a random spread bet, it is pure chance whether the line moves one way or the other.

If and when it does, you must also be aware of the likelihood of the bet ending up in the middle. Otherwise, you are still not getting value even though you believe you have ‘beaten the system.’ Middling is an advanced method that depends on either a line moving or two bookmakers pricing the same game differently. It is the equivalent of backing a long shot, so your skill and judgment are required to see if you are getting ‘value.’